Joint session Horizon scanning

3.12    COC and COM held a joint discussion session in October 2023 to discuss a new approach to undertaking horizon scanning for the Committees. Professor Jason Weeks (IEH Consulting) provided a facilitated discussion to consider emerging evidence, conducting a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis, and then considered the external drivers for the aspects identified using a Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Legal and Ethical (STEEPLE) analysis. As assessment was then made of the time point at which the main impacts of the issues identified (short-term: 1-3 years, medium-term: 4-10 years, long-term: 10+ years)

3.13    A series of potential work-streams were identified:

a.     It was agreed to develop a continuous programme of regular horizon scanning to identify and disseminate emerging issues (both positive and negative) on the short-, medium- and long-term horizons, with reporting at intervals to be agreed with the Secretariat.

b.     A method was agreed to assess and prioritise the importance/likelihood and impact of the emerging issues identified in [a] above.

c.     In the future a programme of deep dive studies will be developed to investigate the current state of science/evidence and possible future developments and determine the implications of issues identified as high priority (by respective committees).